Speculation

Tinfoil Hats MUST be Worn

Market Speculation is a key part of assessing all plays and risk. It lays out some of the possibilities of crazy YOLO events that may just...…. not happen. Speculation also helps bring out the true creative autist out of everyone. One must vision & predict the market like a herd of sheep.


The Great Marketing Bubble

The general market could be exposed to their "promising" investment being actual straight trash

As of right now, this idea of a Marketing Bubble has been only applied conceptually so it will stay in "Speculation" for now. This "Marketing Bubble" topic can go hand and hand with the "General Asset Bubble" piece. Moving forward it will be a matter of testing these ideas to see how strong they hold up to the numbers and models. Additionally this idea is backed by the idea that one day we will go back to living "semi-normally" (this will be touched upon later within the piece).

To start off its important to get a bit of back story on where this idea is coming from --- Advances in technology and the massive amounts of data collected within the past 20 years has transformed the environment we live in today. This of course is a no brainer. What I specifically want to focus on for this piece is how technology & data have changed the entire backbone behind marketing. Marketing is now a tool created to manipulate both businesses and consumers alike. Entities have business models that simply do not and will not work. This general idea of shitty business models lay as the foundation of this "Marketing Bubble". Another important factor is how COVID has impacted this marketing bubble of promise for great "innovation".

There are several companies/markets out there that from a financially profitable standpoint have no chance in the long run given current models and business strategies. These companies have high hopes of making an actual profit in the future but I see no success related to this moving into the future:

  • Food Delivery, Online Sportsbooks, etc etc etc

Other Industries that I will talk about differently related to marketing on how they aren't as good as they sounds:

  • Electric Vehicles, Renewable Energy

asdf

God Emperor of Mars, Elon Musk, has and continues to stay in contact with Aliens

Ayeeeee LMAO the title explains it all

Elon Musk Talking About Aliens

September 30, 2019 --- Elon Musk claims that he was "pretty sure" aliens don't exist because he hasn't seen any yet.

“As far as we know, we are the only consciousness or the only life that’s out there. There might be other life, but we’ve seen no signs of it. People often ask me, ‘what do you know about the aliens,’ I’d tell you, man, I’m pretty sure I’d know if there were aliens. I’ve not seen any signs of aliens.”

August 2, 2020 --- Elon Musk tweeted "Aliens built the pyramids obv"

December 8, 2020 --- Elon Musk tweeted "So long, and thanks for the orifice ! - Alien message decrypted".

Climate Change and Over Population

How can you make good long term gains that capitalize most off of other's short term stupidity? I once said to myself, "I'll take climate change seriously when politicians stop buying beach houses. Then I realized politicians are the stupidest people on earth and have no sense of the word "consequences." There's real evidence that shit will get worse. Probably not tomorrow, but eventually. Read here for some possible ideas on how you can make some plays on the 25+ year horizon.

Long term play on real estate relative to land being lost?

Clean Energy & Electric Vehicles --- Hype or Scam --- Yes hype but still a total scam, follow the sheep all the way up to Valhalla

Fresh Water


General Asset Bubble

Following the current asset bubble from the perspective of a sheep

The Cambridge Dictionary of "being (like) sheep" --- "If a group of people are like sheep, they all behave in the same way or all behave as they are told, or cannot or will not act independently."

To understand this asset bubble one must view the general market like a herd of sheep. In doing so one must think like the sheep. Sleep, shit, and eat like the sheep. One must follow the sheep. Even if that means following the herd all the way up to the top of Lucifer Peak where promise of the greenest graze await. You keep in mind that you in fact, are not a sheep but instead an aut in need of anything green as you ate all your green crayons.

The first few sheep lead towards the top of Lucifer's Peak focused solely on the sight of green, not stopping until they find their promised graze. As the herd charges forward and increases elevation you grow suspicious towards the 'promised' green and consistently remind yourself "Wait I'm not a sheep, I have just been following the sheep".

From the back of the herd you recognize something strange ahead of you. Your herd has just decreased in half. As this is to hard to explain in the very moment you act on straight instinct and stop. The rest of the herd continues..... Continues chasing for the sight of green. After a few seconds you stand as a lone aut. You slowly move forward until you reach the absolute peak of Lucifer Peak only to see a distressful sight. A graveyard of sheep that lay 8,000ft below.


Actual DD

Its tough to explain how the market is not in some type of bubble. It is understandable that the 'market' is not reflective of the economy but to the point of where we are at now something does not seem right. There are various factors/events I believe to help back this idea. I am unsure on how much each event/factor actually effects the market, but it is worth mentioning in no particular order. I will state various reason on the creation of the bubble as well as various reason on why the bubble may never pop.

  1. The straight increase in the volume of new investors. The story always say that when your painter/shoe-cleaner starts asking you about stonks, something may seem a bit off. This 'saying' I think follows the sheep story, it shows how many people out there are investing while have no idea what they are truly doing. Yes I think there are some pros to this as it acts as I think investing is a great investment for all those looking to grow their wealth into the future, but at the same time I think the sheep don't realize the true realization and expectations of an actual market

Extending off of this point, think about how many NEW investor out their think its reasonable to have 30% returns in the matter of three months. This I think has had a wicked up spiral to the act of the bubble itself.

  1. GME to the moon baby. But a quick realization to this event, can we just take note that this actually happened. This was a once in a lifetime event and the likelihood that something like this happens again is slim to none. And yet there was little to no price correction in the general market. How did this not strike fear into the hearts of the investors of how synthetic and manipulated the markets are. To answer this question I think a lot of this had to do with the media and how the media portray this event. Because it was simply because 'WSB banded together and pumped the fuck outta GME', the sheep thought HAAA funny funny. When in reality what was going on is most likely happening on a market wide scale to some extent. Imagine if just as much this short sighted downside with GME from hedge funds was happening with 90% of the rest of the market out there. What if hedge funds have been pumping into these "marketing" related stonks as its easy for people to think these stonks are good quality investments. When in reality hedge funds have very short positions in them and have been riding this shit since March and when shit hits the fan it wont matter because they have been synthetically pumping this shit since end of March. This is a bit of a ramble but idk, I think there is a ton more going on than actually should

Understand the power that the media has on new investors & market sentiment.

  1. Understand the power that the media has on new investors & market sentiment.

Apocalypse Investing

Everyone's played the thought experiment in their head at least once. I think that most of us will be pretty lucky in an apocalypse and die quickly and relatively painlessly. For the rest of you, here is some discussion about how you can prepare to be Warren Buffet of the radioactive badlands.


Food, Water, Shelter, Protection, and anything from the old world will be incredibly valuable in the years after the a big apocalypse. However, not all of this is something that you can prepare for. I'm not looking for sure shot items, the kinds that will be valuable regardless of how society breaks down. I'm looking for dumb shit that costs $2 today that someone would trade their wife for, or at the very least 1000x baggers. I'm also not interested in things like cigarettes, MREs, water filtration, and other things that will be incredibly valuable to survival. People have already talked about this.

1) Laminated porn magazines. Laminated makes sure it doesn't get wet, deteriorate, or the pages stick together. Let me paint a picture as to why this would be insanely valuable. You've managed to survive a few years, but those years been hard on you and just about everyone around you. Everyone's suffered their fair share of wounds and maladies. Society has managed to begin to meet some of its basic functions, but there's no running water, no real medicine, but there's almost no recreation. There's on kind of recreation that people have been doing since the dawn of man. You stop and think... The prettiest girl in town is a tie between the girl with only half her teeth and the one with leprosy. Now you already struck out twice with both of them this week, so you go to your friendly neighborhood porn dealer. The only one in town and the only one around for 100 miles. You have a brief flashback of Riley Reid faking an incredible orgasm and you nearly nut through your crusty sock. You curse the new world and the fact that you have to go to magazines if you want porn. But hey, it's better than squinting at the thicc stump in the woods. In all your shame you walk into Porn4u and you find dozens of others inside each trading their corn, wheat, and beer for a few days with particular magazines like brokers on the NYSE trading floor. The man at the register is the fattest man in town is pitting two guys against eachother auction style... He's wearing a bearskin coat that screams, "I'm gonna bang your wife." You hate him and that he got rich over such a dumb idea. Who the fuck laminates a fucking porn mag? But here he is, fat and happy, all because he was thinking ahead. Be the chad behind the register and not this guy.

2) Toothpaste. You know that feeling in the back of your throat after a long night of drinking, smoking, and shouting incoherently over the bar music? Your throat is sore and the remnant taste of alcohol, blended with cigarette ash, and mild notes of b hole sit blissfully on your tongue. Imagine the taste you'd have after years of struggling to survive. Eating charred squirrel and smoking whatever medley of plants that fucked with your head enough to make you forget that you're living in a hellscape. What would you pay to brush your teeth the next morning?

3) Condoms --- Nah need the extra slave labor with children, raw dog for the win

4) Solar Panels, a battery storage source, and a 3D printer --- Imagine all the crazy shit you could make with a 3D print in an pocalyptic state. Good luck getting one AFTER the apolocapse happens. But if you got this shit before, you can make some pretty handy things